What's a lotto ticket really worth?
Every game you buy has an average value. It's what the game pays back in prizes, spread across everyone who plays, and it's called the "expected value". Pick a game and a jackpot below. You'll find it's almost always less than you pay. Why big jackpots get people spending more.
All games at their next jackpot
| Game | Jackpot | Value per game | Shared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday Lotto | $6M | 43.5¢ | 99% |
| Weekday Lotto | $1M fixed | 36.2¢ | n/a |
| Oz Lotto | $40M | 93.9¢ | 42% |
| Powerball | $10M | 51.4¢ | 17% |
| Set for Life | $5M fixed | 38.1¢ | n/a |
Hold these up against what you pay for a game. Lottery prizes in Australia are tax-free.
Oz Lotto at $40,000,000
- Expected value per game
- 93.9¢
- Games entered (estimate)
- 34M
- If you win division 1
- 77% of the pool, on average
Value per game as the jackpot grows
Bigger jackpots pull in more players, so you're more likely to have to share. That's why the value grows more slowly than the jackpot.
Where the value comes from
| Div | Odds | Prize | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 winning numbers | 1 in 62.9M | $30.88M
your expected share |
49.1¢ |
| 26 winning numbers + 1 supplementary | 1 in 3.0M | $60.98K | 2.0¢ |
| 36 winning numbers | 1 in 243K | $5.086K | 2.1¢ |
| 45 winning numbers + 1 or 2 supplementary | 1 in 26K | $397.25 | 1.5¢ |
| 55 winning numbers | 1 in 4,497 | $53.84 | 1.2¢ |
| 64 winning numbers | 1 in 182 | $26.59 | 14.6¢ |
| 73 winning numbers + 1 or more supplementary | 1 in 71 | $16.58 | 23.4¢ |
The cost of playing regularly
We ran 20,000 pretend players. Each one plays 1 Oz Lotto game every draw (52 draws a year). Here's how they ended up.
- Games played
- 260
- Typical player wins
- $97.70
- Average winnings
- $197.70
Enter your price per game above and you'll see what this costs, and the chance of coming out ahead.
Chance of winning each division at least once in 5 years
| Div | Needs | Chance | That's 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 winning numbers | < 0.01% 1 in 241,891 | 241,891 |
| 2 | 6 winning numbers + 1 supplementary | < 0.01% 1 in 11,519 | 11,519 |
| 3 | 6 winning numbers | 0.11% 1 in 934 | 934 |
| 4 | 5 winning numbers + 1 or 2 supplementary | 0.98% 1 in 102 | 102 |
| 5 | 5 winning numbers | 6% 1 in 18 | 18 |
| 6 | 4 winning numbers | 76% | – |
| 7 | 3 winning numbers + 1 or more supplementary | 98% | – |
Each pretend game wins a division at the current format's odds. Each win pays a prize picked at random from what winners of that division were actually paid in the current format, so division 1 includes the times the jackpot was shared. The chance of winning at least once is worked out exactly: 1 − (1 − odds)games. Winnings aren't spent on more games.
What does your playing add up to?
Those players are made up, but your spending isn't. The spend check adds up a normal week and shows what that money could grow to if you saved it instead. The spending diary keeps a private tally of every ticket.
If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, free and confidential help is there 24/7 from Gambling Help Online or on 1800 858 858. Here's how to spot the signs.
How this is calculated
- Odds come from the game rules for the current format (7 from 47 + 3 supplementary). We check those rules against how winners actually spread across the divisions.
- Divisions 2 and below use the average prize actually paid in the current format (231 draws, counting only draws where someone won that division).
- Division 1 is a pool shared by all winners. Entries per draw are estimated as lowest-division winners ÷ the odds of that division, then fitted against the jackpot of the 57 draws where division 1 was won: entries ∝ jackpot0.60 (correlation 0.94). At $40M that's about 34M games, so about 0.54 other winning games would be expected. Your expected share is (1 − e−λ) ÷ λ = 77%.
- Prizes in Australia are tax-free. Ticket prices change with the type of game and the seller's fees, so enter what you actually pay.