Trackkn

How the greenfield site assessment works

Give us the lot numbers or an address. We load the government's maps for the site, take off the land you can't build on, and work out what's left is worth. It's the upfront work a planner would start with, done before you decide whether to pay for one.

Here's every step, the rules we use, and how close it has come on real sites.

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What's in every report

  • Ten government map layersThe lot boundary, zoning, minimum lot size, creeks, flood land, mapped bushland, bushfire, landslide, heritage and easements, each with its source and date.
  • The land you can really build onEvery constraint taken off once, then a concept layout of the roads and lots.
  • What it's worth todayThe value once rezoned, brought back to today and weighed by the chance of rezoning, against the asking price, with what you'd lose if it's refused.
  • Your due diligence planEvery check and study the site still needs, in order, with costs, a timeline and the funding you'd need.

The first look a planner, a valuer and a project manager would each want, set out the same way every time, in a report you can share with your lender or partners.

Five steps, from maps to an answer

  1. Load the maps

    The lot boundary, zoning, minimum lot size, creeks, flood land, bushland, bushfire, landslide risk, heritage and easements, from the state's and council's map services.

  2. Take off what can't be built on

    Each constraint comes off in turn, so no land is counted twice.See the rules

  3. Count the lots

    68% of the land you can build on becomes lots, after roads and parks, at 450 m² a lot. You can change both.

  4. Work out the value

    What the land is worth once it's rezoned, in today's money, weighed by the chance it happens.See the sum

  5. Show what's left to do

    The checks and studies the site still needs, in order, with costs, a timeline and what borrowing does to your cash.

What comes off, and how much

Brochures quote the whole site. These are the rules we use to find the part you can really build on.

200 mN

Tap a layer to hide or show it. Switch on the concept lots to see roads and lots sketched across the land you can build on, and try 3D to lift them off the land. In 3D, drag the map to turn it, and double-click to put it back.

The sample site: 38.8 ha in all, 24.3 ha left to build on once every constraint is off. Each piece of land counts once, under the first rule that takes it.

Creek corridors

Each state sets its own. In NSW it's 10, 20, 30 or 40 m each side, by how big the creek is. In Queensland it's 10, 25 or 50 m, also by size. In Victoria it's 30 m each side.

Flood land

The council's or the state's flood mapping, where it's published. Where it isn't, the report tells you, because the land figure may read high.

Protected bushland

Land on the state's protected vegetation map is kept: the Biodiversity Values Map in NSW, native vegetation in Victoria, and regulated vegetation and koala habitat in Queensland. You can choose to clear it instead, and the cost of offsets comes off the value.

Steep land

Slopes over 20%, from your survey or an elevation model you add.

Bushfire buffers

35 m from kept bushland and 10 m from creek corridors to start with. A bushfire assessment sets the real widths, and you can change them.

Easements

Easements on the government's cadastre, such as gas and power lines. A title search can show more.

Odour and industry buffers

Around sewage plants, poultry farms and quarries. No public map shows them, so the report asks you to look, and you add them.

You add these

How the value is worked out

We start with what the lots would sell for, then take off what it costs to get there. What's left is what a developer could pay for the land once it's rezoned.

Rezoning takes years and might not happen, so we bring that back to today's money and weigh it by the chance it's approved. If it's refused, the land is still worth its rural value. Last, the costs of holding the land and paying for studies come off.

Here's the sum for the sample site. Every line is in the report, and you can change any number in it.

  1. 367 lots sold$157.81mAt $430,000 a lot
  2. The land once it's rezoned$51.77mLess building the estate, council contributions, servicing and a 20% developer margin
  3. In today's money$23.84mBrought back 9 years at 9% a year, to rezoning and the last lot sold
  4. Weighed by the chance of rezoning$10.81mA 40% chance it's rezoned, and rural value if it isn't
  5. What the site supports today$10.42mLess holding and study costs until rezoning
  6. The asking price$9.00m

How close it comes

We tested it against published planning proposals, where a planner drew the land for housing. From the government's maps alone, how close does our figure come to theirs?

KingsdaleGoulburn

+11%
Whole site50.6 ha
Ours44.3 ha
The planner's39.8 ha

Within 11% of the planner, from public maps alone.

Government RoadCessnock

+67%
Whole site42.4 ha
Ours14.7 ha
The planner's8.8 ha

Far out: a sewage plant's odour buffer covers much of the site, and no public map shows it. That's why every report now asks you to check for buffers.

When it reads high, it's what the maps don't show

Unmapped flood land

Some councils haven't published a flood map yet.

Easements on the title

Only a title search shows them all.

Odour and industry buffers

They aren't on any public map.

So each report lists where its figure may read high, and your own studies replace the public maps as you get them. Still to come: a test against a planner's full assessment of the same site, studies and all. Until then, treat every figure as a first look.

What it is, and what it isn't

It is

  • An honest first look at a site, with the upfront mapping and measuring done
  • A way to find which sites are worth paying a consultant for
  • Clear about its sources, and about what it couldn't check
  • Better with your own studies as you get them

It isn't

  • A planner's assessment, a valuation or a survey
  • Financial advice
  • A planning certificate, a title search or a specialist study
  • A promise the land will be rezoned

The maps come from these government sources, under Creative Commons licences, and are for reference only. Aerial photos are from Mapbox.

NSW Spatial ServicesNSW Department of Planning, Housing and InfrastructureNSW Rural Fire ServiceNSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and WaterVictorian Department of Transport and PlanningVictorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate ActionQueensland GovernmentCity of Gold CoastSunshine Coast CouncilCity of Moreton Bay

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