What's a lotto ticket really worth?
Every game you buy has an average value. It's what the game pays back in prizes, spread across everyone who plays, and it's called the "expected value". Pick a game and a jackpot below. You'll find it's almost always less than you pay. Why big jackpots get people spending more.
All games at their next jackpot
| Game | Jackpot | Value per game | Shared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday Lotto | $6M | 43.5¢ | 99% |
| Weekday Lotto | $1M fixed | 36.2¢ | n/a |
| Oz Lotto | $40M | 93.9¢ | 42% |
| Powerball | $10M | 51.4¢ | 17% |
| Set for Life | $5M fixed | 38.1¢ | n/a |
Hold these up against what you pay for a game. Lottery prizes in Australia are tax-free.
Set for Life at $5,000,000
- Expected value per game
- 38.1¢
Where the value comes from
| Div | Odds | Prize | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 winning numbers | 1 in 38.3M | $5M | 13.0¢ |
| 26 winning numbers + 1 bonus | 1 in 2.7M | $60.18K | 2.2¢ |
| 36 winning numbers | 1 in 156K | $918.41 | 0.6¢ |
| 45 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | 1 in 26K | $122.69 | 0.5¢ |
| 55 winning numbers | 1 in 3,067 | $32.83 | 1.1¢ |
| 64 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | 1 in 894 | $21.73 | 2.4¢ |
| 74 winning numbers | 1 in 167 | $10.78 | 6.4¢ |
| 83 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | 1 in 80 | $9.52 | 11.9¢ |
The cost of playing regularly
We ran 20,000 pretend players. Each one plays 1 Set for Life game every draw (365 draws a year). Here's how they ended up.
- Games played
- 7,300
- Typical player wins
- $1,603
- Average winnings
- $2,684
Enter your price per game above and you'll see what this costs, and the chance of coming out ahead.
Chance of winning each division at least once in 20 years
| Div | Needs | Chance | That's 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 winning numbers | 0.02% 1 in 5,250 | 5,250 |
| 2 | 6 winning numbers + 1 bonus | 0.27% 1 in 375 | 375 |
| 3 | 6 winning numbers | 5% 1 in 22 | 22 |
| 4 | 5 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | 25% 1 in 4 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 winning numbers | 91% | – |
| 6 | 4 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | > 99% | – |
| 7 | 4 winning numbers | > 99% | – |
| 8 | 3 winning numbers + 1 or 2 bonus | > 99% | – |
Each pretend game wins a division at the current format's odds. Each win pays a prize picked at random from what winners of that division were actually paid in the current format. The chance of winning at least once is worked out exactly: 1 − (1 − odds)games. Winnings aren't spent on more games.
What does your playing add up to?
Those players are made up, but your spending isn't. The spend check adds up a normal week and shows what that money could grow to if you saved it instead. The spending diary keeps a private tally of every ticket.
If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, free and confidential help is there 24/7 from Gambling Help Online or on 1800 858 858. Here's how to spot the signs.
How this is calculated
- Odds come from the game rules for the current format (7 from 44 + 2 bonus). We check those rules against how winners actually spread across the divisions.
- Divisions 2 and below use the average prize actually paid in the current format (2399 draws, counting only draws where someone won that division).
- Division 1 pays a fixed amount to each winner: monthly payments over 20 years, counted here at face value, so they're worth less in today's money.
- Prizes in Australia are tax-free. Ticket prices change with the type of game and the seller's fees, so enter what you actually pay.