Example Land Co

Ridgeback Creek (demo)

Lot 7 DP 000000 (fictional) Central Coast-style rural fringe Prepared 17 October 2026 By Sam Smith

Made-up demonstration site Screening estimate

The answer

Worth pursuing: the asking price is below what the site supports

At a 40% chance of rezoning, the site supports about $10.4m, against an asking price of $9m. The asking price only stacks up if you rate the chance of rezoning at 33% or better.

Asking price$9m

What it supports$10.4m

Room on the price $1.4m

Chance of rezoning

33% breaks even 40% assumed

0%Below 33%, the asking price is too high. Above it, the deal stacks up.100%

Going for it

$1.4m of room on the priceIt supports about $10.4m, against an asking price of $9m.
It works even if rezoning is less likelyIt breaks even at a 33% chance of rezoning, below the 40% assumed.
63% of the site can be built on24.3 ha of 38.8 ha, room for about 367 lots.
Some checks came back clearNothing mapped for landslide risk and heritage (LEP).

Against it

Protected bushland (Biodiversity Values Map)2.4 ha mapped. Clearing it triggers the Biodiversity Offsets Scheme; credit costs can rival land value. Kept, it takes 6% of the site.
It needs rezoningHousing needs a planning proposal. This report assumes a 40% chance it succeeds, taking 4 years. If it's refused, you'd lose about $7.9m.
37% of the site can't be built onMostly creek corridors 3.8 ha, flood land 3.6 ha, steep land 2.9 ha, protected bushland 2.4 ha (above). See how much land you can use, below.
Contamination historyAssumed: 1970s aerials show an orchard and packing shed near the eastern boundary.

How to settle each one is in "What still needs doing", below.

Not checked yet

Odour and industry buffersOdour and industry buffers aren't mapped publicly. Near a sewage plant, industry, a poultry farm or a quarry, they can rule out much of a site. Check what's nearby and add any buffers.

Land you can build on24.3 haof 38.8 ha, about 367 lots

If it's rezoned$68m profita yearly return of 26% over 10 years

If rezoning is refused−$7.9msold as rural land after 4 years

How much land you can use

About 6 in every 10 hectares can be built on: 24.3 ha of 38.8 ha, room for about 367 lots. Each constraint comes off in turn, so no land is counted twice.

Can be built onCreek corridorFlood landProtected bushlandSteep land (over 20%)Bushfire buffer (APZ)Lot boundary

Whole site38.8 ha

Less creek corridors3.8 ha

Less flood land3.6 ha

Less protected bushland2.4 ha

Less steep land2.9 ha

Less bushfire buffers1.7 ha

Can be built on24.3 ha

Creek corridors follow the NSW guidelines by stream order (10 to 40 m each side). Bushfire buffers are 35 m from kept bushland and 10 m from creek corridors; a bushfire assessment sets the real widths. Mapped bushland is kept.

What it's worth

Two ways it can go, at the asking price of $9m.

If it's rezoned

Profit: $68m
Yearly return (IRR): 26.2%
Most cash tied up at once: $33m
From buying to the last sale: 10 years

From $40.3m if prices fall and costs rise, to $84.7m if things go well.

If rezoning is refused

Loss: −$7.9m
Yearly return: −34.1%
Most cash tied up at once: $9.9m
Sold as rural land after: 4 years

What the site supports today weighs the two: the land's value once rezoned and sold ($51.8m, worth $23.8m today after waiting 9 years), times the 40% chance of rezoning, plus its rural value for the rest, less holding and study costs. The workings are at the back.

Funding

With a land loan for 50% of the price and a works loan for 70% of the works, at 8.5% a year added to the loans. Sales pay the loans off first; the rest goes to the investors.

If it's rezoned

Cash from investors: $16.9m
Most borrowed at once: $37.7m
Interest: $4.2m
Profit after interest: $63.8m
Investors' yearly return: 33.2%
Back for each $1 put in: $4.77

Without loans: $33m at the most, and 26.2% a year.

If rezoning is refused

Cash from investors: $9.7m
Most borrowed at once: $6.2m
Interest: $1.7m
Loss after interest: −$9.7m

The rural sale doesn't clear the land loan, so the investors repay the last $4.1m themselves.

The investors lose everything they put in.

What still needs doing

Everything left to check and commission, in the order you'd do it, with what it costs. Items you've already checked, noted or added your own data for are ticked.

Studies budget$238k to $597k13 studies, middle estimate $418k

Done so far0 of 19

Longest study26 weeksmost run side by side

Rezoning15 to 38 monthstypically, once lodged

Before you make an offer

Quick checks, mostly free: days to a few weeks.

Free or low cost0 of 6 done

Ask council where the site sits in its housing strategy and the regional planDecides the chance of rezoning, the biggest unknown in the price.

Free
Order a title searchEasements and covenants the maps don't show can take land.

Low
Run a basic AHIMS searchRecorded Aboriginal sites can need a permit and change the layout.

Free
Look for sewage plants, industry, poultry farms and quarries nearbyTheir buffers aren't mapped publicly and can rule out much of a site.

Free
Check MinView for mining titlesExploration licences and mining leases can sit over rural land.

Free
Ask the water and power providers about capacityLead-in water, sewer and power can cost millions if capacity is far away.

Low

Before you commit

The studies that show whether the deal holds up. Run them during an option or due diligence period.

$109k to $275k0 of 6 done

Biodiversity Development Assessment Report2.4 ha on the Biodiversity Values Map. Seasonal surveys can stretch this past six months.

$35k to $90k26 weeks15% of the budget
Flood impact assessment6.0 ha in the flood planning area

$25k to $70k14 weeks11% of the budget
Geotechnical investigationSteep or unstable ground mapped

$20k to $45k6 weeks8% of the budget
Detailed site surveyBoundaries, levels and features every other study relies on

$15k to $35k6 weeks6% of the budget
Bushfire assessment (Planning for Bush Fire Protection)Lot is bushfire proneRFS bush fire safety authority

$8k to $20k6 weeks3% of the budget
Preliminary site investigation (contamination)Required for any change to residential use

$6k to $15k5 weeks3% of the budget

For the planning proposal

The remaining studies, then rezoning.

$129k to $322k0 of 7 done

Planning proposal and urban design reportStrategic merit case to rezone from rural

$40k to $90k12 weeks16% of the budget
Detailed site investigation (contamination)Historical land use flagged

$30k to $80k10 weeks13% of the budget
Stormwater and WSUD strategyDetention and water quality for the new catchment

$15k to $40k8 weeks7% of the budget
Servicing strategy (water, sewer, power)Lead-in infrastructure route and cost

$15k to $40k10 weeks7% of the budget
Riparian assessment and vegetation management planStrahler order 1, 2 watercoursesNRAR controlled activity approval

$12k to $30k8 weeks5% of the budget
Traffic and access assessment367 lots trigger a road network review

$12k to $30k6 weeks5% of the budget
Aboriginal cultural heritage due diligenceUndisturbed land, higher likelihood near creeksHeritage NSW AHIP, only if sites are found

$5k to $12k6 weeks2% of the budget

Then rezoning. Typical total 15–38 months. Your feasibility assumes 48 months, slower than the typical range. Contested proposals and council resolutions against rezoning can add years.

1Pre-lodgement scoping with council1 to 3 months
2Planning proposal lodged and assessed by council3 to 9 months
3Gateway determination1 to 3 months
4Gateway studies and agency consultation6 to 12 months
5Public exhibition1 to 2 months
6Post-exhibition review, council decision, LEP made3 to 9 months

Study fees and times are typical ranges, not quotes; "low" means a small fee. Most studies run side by side, so the longest one sets the pace.

Timeline

When each step happens. The last lots settle about 11 years from now. The rezoning stages usually take 1.4 to 3.2 years after buying, and these numbers allow 4, which leaves room for delays.

Checks and studies7 months, before you buy

Planning proposal and rezoning4 years, holding the land

Lead-in works and the first lots$4.5m of lead-in services

Selling the lots367 lots at about 90 a year

NowYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

The next 11 months

Now1234567891011

Buy the land ↓

Lodge the planning proposal ↓

Before you make an offer Free or low cost

6 quick checks

Before you commit $109k to $275k

Biodiversity Development Assessment Report

Flood impact assessment

Geotechnical investigation

Detailed site survey

Bushfire assessment (Planning for Bush Fire Protection)

Preliminary site investigation (contamination)

For the planning proposal $129k to $322k

Planning proposal and urban design report

Detailed site investigation (contamination)

Stormwater and WSUD strategy

Servicing strategy (water, sewer, power)

Riparian assessment and vegetation management plan

Traffic and access assessment

Aboriginal cultural heritage due diligence

Pre-lodgement scoping with council

Months from now. Study times are typical, from commissioning to the report.

Other findings

What the sections above don't already cover. Every finding is listed at the back.

Bushfire prone land Constraint	12.3 ha mapped (Vegetation Category 1 and buffer). APZs remove 1.7 ha at current settings; a BAL assessment sets the real widths.	Spatial layer
Landslide risk Clear	None mapped	Spatial layer
Heritage (LEP) Clear	None mapped	Spatial layer
Easements Check	None recorded in the cadastre. Check the title: not every easement is mapped.	Spatial layer

Sales nearby

Sale	Date	Zone	Area	Price
Rural block, 3 km north (synthetic)	Mar 2026	RU2	41.2 ha	$2,150,000 $52,184/ha
Rural block, 5 km west (synthetic)	Nov 2025	RU2	28.5 ha	$1,690,000 $59,298/ha
Rural block with dwelling, 4 km east (synthetic)	Jul 2026	RU4	16.8 ha	$1,480,000 $88,095/ha
Englobo, rezoned R2, 6 km south (synthetic)	Jun 2026	R2	22.0 ha	$15,400,000 $700,000/ha
Finished lot, nearby estate (synthetic)	Aug 2026	R2	450 m²	$445,000

The middle rural sale is $59,298/ha. This report values the land at $55,000/ha if rezoning fails.

How the numbers were worked out

What the site supports today, in three steps. Figures are rounded to $0.1m so each step adds up as shown.

1. What the land is worth once rezoned

Lot sales367 lots × $430,000

$157.8m

Less developer's margin20% on cost, kept by whoever develops it

−$26.3m

Less building, services and contributions367 lots × $205,000

−$75.2m

Less lead-in servicesWater, sewer and power brought to the site

−$4.5m

Land value once rezonedWhat a developer could pay for the rezoned land

$51.8m

2. What that's worth today

Land value once rezonedFrom step 1

$51.8m

Less allowing for the wait9 years (4 to rezone, 5 to sell the lots) at 9% a year

−$28.0m

Worth today, if rezoned

$23.8m

3. Weighed by the chance of rezoning

If rezoned40% chance × $23.8m

$9.5m

If not, its value as rural land60% chance × 38.8 ha at $55,000/ha ($2.1m)

$1.3m

Less holding and study costs$18,000 a year and the middle of the study fees, until rezoning, in today's money

−$396k

What the site supports todayAgainst an asking price of $9.0m

$10.4m

The assumptions

Every figure the workings use. Change any of them on the site page and the report is worked out again.

Buying

Asking price: $9,000,000
Purchase costs, including duty: 6%
Holding cost until rezoning: $18,000 a year

Lots and sales

Share of the developable land that becomes lots: 68%
Average lot size: 450 m²
Lot price: $430,000
Lots sold: 90 a year

Costs

Building and services: $165,000 a lot
Council contributions: $40,000 a lot
Lead-in services: $4,500,000
Biodiversity offsets: $180,000/ha cleared
Developer's margin: 20% on cost

Funding

Land loan: 50% of the price
Works loan: 70% of the lead-in and building costs
Interest: 8.5% a year, added to the loans

Timing and risk

Chance rezoning succeeds: 40%
Years to rezoning: 4
Discount rate: 9% a year
Rural value if not rezoned: $55,000/ha

Four ways it could go

Each scenario's yearly cashflow at the asking price, with no borrowing.

Upside

Prices +8%, costs −5%, rezoning a year sooner, sales +20%

Profit: $84.7m
Yearly return: 36.4%
Margin on cost: 98.7%
Most cash tied up: $35.3m
Takes: 8 years

BaseAs entered

Prices, costs, timing and sales as above.

Profit: $68m
Yearly return: 26.2%
Margin on cost: 75.8%
Most cash tied up: $33m
Takes: 10 years

Downside

Prices −10%, costs +15%, rezoning 2 years late, sales −30%

Profit: $40.3m
Yearly return: 13.5%
Margin on cost: 39.6%
Most cash tied up: $30.1m
Takes: 13 years

Rezoning refused

Hold to the rezoning date, then sell as rural land

Loss: −$7.9m
Yearly return: −34.1%
Margin on cost: −79.2%
Most cash tied up: $9.9m
Takes: 4 years

Scenarios run year by year: purchase and duty in year 0, holding and study costs until rezoning, lead-in works the year after, lots built at the sales rate, and each year's lots settling a year later.

All findings

Constraints on the site

Land zoning Constraint	RU2 Rural Landscape (100%); C3 Environmental Management (3%). Residential use needs a planning proposal.	Spatial layer
Minimum lot size Constraint	40 ha minimum. Subdivision blocked until changed.	Spatial layer
Biodiversity Values Map Deal risk	2.4 ha mapped. Clearing it triggers the Biodiversity Offsets Scheme; credit costs can rival land value.	Spatial layer
Watercourses Constraint	Strahler order 1, 2 mapped. 3.8 ha lost to riparian corridors. Works within 40 m need a controlled activity approval.	Spatial layer
Flood planning Constraint	6.0 ha inside the flood planning area. Check the council flood study for depth and hazard.	Spatial layer
Bushfire prone land Constraint	12.3 ha mapped (Vegetation Category 1 and buffer). APZs remove 1.7 ha at current settings; a BAL assessment sets the real widths.	Spatial layer
Slope Constraint	2.9 ha over 20% grade.	Elevation model
Contamination history Constraint	Assumed: 1970s aerials show an orchard and packing shed near the eastern boundary.	Manual check

Still to check

Easements Check	None recorded in the cadastre. Check the title: not every easement is mapped.	Spatial layer
Buffers (odour, industry) Check	Not assessed: no public layer maps them. Look for sewage treatment plants, industry, poultry farms and quarries nearby, and add their buffers.	Manual check
Strategic status Check	Assumed: inside a regional plan urban investigation area, not yet in a Local Housing Strategy.	Manual check
Aboriginal heritage (AHIMS) Check	Run a basic AHIMS search. Undisturbed land near creeks often has recorded sites.	Manual check
Title, easements, covenants Check	Order a title search. Transmission and pipeline easements don't appear in planning layers.	Manual check
Servicing Check	Lodge feasibility enquiries for water, sewer and power capacity.	Manual check
Mining titles Check	Check MinView for exploration licences and mining leases.	Manual check

Clear

Landslide risk Clear	None mapped	Spatial layer
Heritage (LEP) Clear	None mapped	Spatial layer

Where the data came from

Data	Source	Licence	Fetched or added
Made-up layers for the demonstration site.

Words used in this report

APZ (asset protection zone): Cleared land kept between homes and bushland to slow a bushfire. Its width depends on the bushland and the slope.
BDAR: Biodiversity Development Assessment Report: an ecologist's report on what clearing would affect and what offsets it would need.
Biodiversity Values Map: The NSW government's map of land with high biodiversity value. Clearing it triggers the Biodiversity Offsets Scheme.
Gateway determination: The state's go-ahead for a council to exhibit a planning proposal, with the studies it must do first.
IRR (yearly return): The yearly rate of return on the money put in, allowing for when it goes in and comes out.
LEP: Local Environmental Plan: the council's legal planning rules, including zoning.
Planning proposal: The request to change the LEP, here to allow housing.
Residual land value: What the land is worth once rezoned: lot sales less the developer's margin and the costs of building.
Strahler order: A creek's size in the network: 1 for a headwater, rising where creeks join. It sets the corridor width.
WSUD: Water sensitive urban design: managing stormwater so it is held back and cleaned before it leaves the site.

Sign-off

Prepared by Sam Smith, Example Land Co The person signing off is responsible for this report and how it is used.